NFL predictions

Okay, I have a bunch of random thoughts on the upcoming NFL season. Instead of bothering my family with my thoughts, let’s just put it in writing.

I will be curious to see how well I do at the end of the season.

My random NFL thoughts for the new season:

• Keyshawn Johnson will have a great year.

• Terrell Owens will not be a Cowboy in 2007

• Cadillac Williams will have his break out year this year

• Bill Cowher will retire at the end of this season.

• Jay Cutler will be the starter in Denver before the season is over

• Defending AFC North division champs, Cincinnati Bengals, will not make the playoffs

• Brett Favre will not be the starter by the end of the season

Okay, the big predication:

Superbowl - Carolina Panthers over Pittsburgh Steelers

At the most recent Search Engine Strategies conference there was session on demographic pay per click targeting. The question that was posed to everyone was:

Does Demographic Targeting Matter?

The overall answer in the discussion was yes. I wanted to dig a little deeper into that, but unfortunately the session was very general, and did not dig deep enough for me. (In fact, that was my overall feeling toward many of the sessions, but that is for another post)

Let me first start by saying “Yes”. I believe demographic marketing can make a huge difference and it is a great idea, however I do not believe there is a solid way to perform demographic targeting.

The assumption in the Search Engine Strategies session was that they have the correct data, so let’s go from there. I can not assume that, and they could not prove to me that they had the correct data. There are too many wholes in the data right now.

Let’s start with MSN’s AdCenter, since they are the only major search engine doing demographic targeting. The demographic data they have comes from their user profiles (Passport, Hotmail, Messenger, etc.)

First, how can we be sure the user profiles are correct? Is your MSN profile correct? Did you answer everything like you were suppose to, or did you just put garbage in to move on the next screen.

Okay, say we take the “BIG” assumption leap over that hurdle. We can a miraculous guarantee that at least 75% of the profiles are correct. Now we ask what about shared computers? When families are using the same computer whose profile are they using? Are we showing ads for Dad, when Mom is surfing? Do we expect users to logoff and log back on to MSN every time they perform a search?

Next “issue”, MSN will not tell us what percentage of “searchers” they have demographics on. My hunch is (and again, it’s nothing but a hunch) …. It’s a very small percentage of searchers. Probably even lower then 10%.

Be aware of demographic search engine targeting. In theory, it’s a great idea, but practically it can be done at this stage and I don’t see it the foreseeable future.